No, Substack Isn't Collapsing
Diary of a Substack Growth Strategist
Diary of a Substack Growth Strategist: Your behind-the-scenes look at what’s really happening and working on Substack right now—with the platform’s leading Growth Strategist, Sarah Fay.
It has been a wild time. I was just interviewed for NPR’s All Things Considered about Substack’s AI detector. This evening I spoke with someone in Australia who has created a tool that actually allows writers to document their process and share exactly how they use AI. More on all that in the future.
There’s been a lot of talk about how paid subscriptions have stalled on Substack. Outrage-bait articles and Notes abound, such as the recent viral, well-meaning, outrage-bait article by Scott Carney that cited a supposed “Substack Collapse” and the not-so-viral but equally-outrage-baity Note by Taylor Lorenz, two Substack writers I respect, read, and pay for annually. (I highly recommend subscribing to both.)
Carney and Lorenz aren’t alone. Many of the larger Substack accounts I’ve worked with have seen their paid subscriptions plateau or tank.
People are hypothesizing the reasons—subscription fatigue, economic insecurity, too many Substacks costing too much, etc.—and offering the usual quasi-solutions—$1 newsletters (which won’t lead to revenue), bundling (it’s hard enough to sell one Substack, let alone three), and a platform-wide flat fee (we do not want to go the way of Medium).
But all that is missing the point.
There’s only one problem: Substack writers are terrible marketers.
That’s it.
And rightfully so. The ‘m’ word isn’t what we signed up for. Few are trained to do it and even fewer are interested in it.
But guess what? That’s the key.
Before I share how to be your own Substack marketer in just a few simple (very basic) ways, let’s dispel some of the misinformation and misunderstanding about what to expect on Substack in terms of revenue and paid subscribers.
Math, not drama
Few Substack writers and creators know how many paid subscribers they want or need. They just want more paid subscribers. And then they hold ridiculous sales just to get paid subscribers (and maybe a checkmark), which doesn’t lead to revenue. That way madness and outrage lie, my friends.
You can’t be outraged when you have an actual number. Money and numbers are math, not drama.
So how many paid subscribers can you expect to have on Substack?
First, you have to work with the right numbers.
Active subscribers, not total subscribers.
Substack used to throw around the statistic that you should for 10 percent of your overall subscribers to be paid subscribers. They’ve since changed that to between 5 and 10 percent, but that’s misleading.
It’s active, not total subscribers. I’m a fan of Linda Caroll; this is just an example of how not understanding what to expect can feel, well, terrible.
A realistic number isn’t 5-10 percent of your total list; it’s 5-10 percent of your active subscribers. If you have 1,000 subscribers but only 500 of them are active, a good goal is to have between and 25 and 50 paid subscribers, not 50 and 100.
And even the 5 to 10% guideline isn’t always helpful. My clients range from 1 percent to 35 percent and everything in between. It’s easy to feel like everyone is doing better than you are, but they aren’t. We’re all in this together.
How to find how many active subscribers you have:
Go to your Publication Dashboard -> Scroll down to Subscribers -> Click Filter in the upper right -> Go to where it says Type, and in the drop-down, find Activity ->Find Is ≥ 1 Star.
Important: Substack’s “activity” metrics is relative and seems pretty random, so don’t make too much of it. Anything above one star is good. You’ve got a pulse.
Don’t be depressed by what might seem like a very low number. Someone can be completely inactive on your list for years and then become active, which is why I never recommend pruning your list (unless you’re after brand partnerships because they look at open rates).
Followers don’t count.
It saddened me to see Lorenz’s Note, mainly because she seems not to understand who her followers are and what to expect of them.
Lorenz asks, “Because what good are followers when follower growth seems correlated with losing paid subs??” First, there’s no correlation. Her logic is that her followers are skyrocketing and paid subscribers have “plummeted.” Notes isn’t where you find paid subscribers.
Substack has always seen Notes as a path: followers -> subscribers -> paid subscribers.
That may happen, but some (many) followers are passive and probably don’t even know they’re following you. Many come through recommendation onboarding and who knows how many of them are even on Notes. And even if they were on Notes, our Notes aren’t getting in front of all of them. I mean, it’s social media.
Which isn’t to say that subscribers don’t come from Notes; they do. Just not necessarily paid subscribers.
In a nutshell: Subscribers have paid you with their email addresses; followers may not even know who you are. When it comes to revenue, focus on your subscribers.
For now, I’ll leave you with this: Substack is a sophisticated platform. If you really want this, you’ve got to double down and go pro. The platform is not going to do it for you. That’s the beauty of Substack.
What’s next
Next week, I’ll show you how to be your own Substack marketer in three simple (authentic) ways to actually grow and keep paid subscribers.
All my best,
Upcoming Substack Lives! Mark your calendars:
Live with Dr. Lucy McBride: How to Turn Your Substack into a Groundbreaking Book: 8/13 at 9 AM CT. Add it to your calendar here.
Take Notes growth (in 1 hour a week) to another level with Orel: 8/20 at 9 AM CT. Add it to your calendar here.
Live with Elizabeth Gilbert: When a Substack Becomes a Spiritual Practice: 9/9 at 2 PM CT. Add it to your calendar here.
This week’s Notes Boost Community. Note: The Notes Boost was created for a different algorithm. You’re welcome to do it to meet each other, but it’s not what I recommend for growth right now.
SW@W homepage | Premier homepage | Substack Starter Pack | 24/7 Community Chat | Manage your subscription | Book a 3-Month Substack Growth Package 1:1
You make a lot of good points, but how could the explosion of new Substacks not lead to subscriber fatigue? Hardly anyone can afford to become a paid subscriber to all of the authors they want to read. I hear this all the time from my readers who also appreciate many other columnists in the Iowa Writers' Collaborative.
There is a limit to how much disposable income most people have, especially with costs going up in other areas of life.
Over half my subscribers are active, meaning 5% of them would realistically be 50 or so paid subscribers. So far, 26 are. That's over half way, so this is very encouraging! I thought I really needed 100 to be reaching the suggested statistic.