The People Predicting Substack in 2026 Are Wrong

+ Here's what's changing

Oh, the predictions.

In case you missed it, a lot of people are writing about what Substack will be like in 2026.

They talk about Substack’s recent declaration that they’re a social media app, albeit with (perhaps) a more discerning algorithm. (It strikes me as just a regular algorithm, but that’s just me.)

And (mostly) the celebrities and influencers crowding the platform.

And the people leaving the platform.

And how hard it will be to grow now.

These Substack Nostradamuses don’t understand that Substack growth has always been difficult and Substack has always been crowded.

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What hasn’t changed

Here are two sentences from the SW@W About page in 2021:

Substack is one of the two hardest platforms to succeed on. Like TikTok, it looks easy but isn’t.

(The next sentence: I’ll save you from wasting years, flailing around trying to figure out what works. I did. And I always will.)

Yes, we had the Substack bubble (January - June 2024), during which Julie Fratantoni, PhD and others exploded. People were getting thousands and tens of thousands of subscribers from a single Note. You could write hello on a Note and not even capitalize the h and get subscribers. The algorithm was like a teenager on Red Bull.

And I warned it wouldn’t last. (See “A Substack Notes Reality Check: When 1 Note Brings in 20,000 Subscribers”).

And it didn’t.

That kind of growth is an anomaly.

Substack growth is difficult.

Yes, even for celebrities and influencers. Trust me. Some of them are my clients.

It’s a challenging, wacky platform. I mean, come on:

• James Patterson sold 5 million books in one year but has only 30,000 subscribers on Substack.

• I have clients with 10,000 subscribers who get 5 likes and 2 comments on a post and clients with 100 subscribers who get the same.

Challenging and/or wacky.

And rightfully so:

• We’re publishing in three mediums at once (web, email, app), writing in two different genres (journalism/essay/blog and the newsletter), and dabbling in new media (audio and/or video).

True, celebrities and influencers are flooding the platform (

Gary Vaynerchuk

,

Andrew Huberman

, et al.), but proportionately, it’s no different than when there were only 17,000 of us on Substack and a bunch of big names arrived.

Yes, Notes is a hamster wheel, but, luckily, it’s separate from your Substack. You never need to be on Notes if you don’t want to.

What if Substack is simply what it’s always been? An amazing opportunity (we seem to have forgotten how hard it was to make even a dollar from writing before Substack), an imperfect online space, and a difficult platform to grow and make money on.

So stop listening to people predict what will happen on Substack in 2026 or 2062 or whenever and focus on what you want to do with your Substack.

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What you want in 2026

Last week, I asked you to help shape the paid subscription.

Your answers to what’s most important to you in terms of your Substack made me so happy.

You’re here to do something real and couldn’t care less about going viral on Notes.

In terms of your paid subscription, what you value most surprised me:

Not the chat or Notes Boost Challenge.

And nearly 90 percent of you want workshops. (Don’t worry, I’m hiring a video editor to create less-than-15-minute highlight replays.)

You want to build your platform.

And do your work with my expert guidance.

That’s what I do best.

For four years, I’ve helped tens of thousands of Substack writers grow; build real, small (!) email lists that actually engaged with their work; offer Substack posts worth paying for; create unbelievable opportunities off Substack because of their Substacks (speaking gigs, book deals, agents, six-figure businesses, and more); and substantially increase their revenue.

But (!) you have to be willing to work and invest the time, energy, and money to do it.

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The (Fay) Substack Growth Framework

You have to understand that I worked with 300 Substack writers my first year of consulting. Three years later, I’ve lost count though I think it’s close to 1000.

Some of my clients are big names; some have never published a word.

From them, I saw what worked across all Substacks and that any advice has to be personalized, which 99 percent of people can’t do for themselves.

• I’ve used that to help tens of thousands here on Substack Writers at Work, showing you how to

  • grow in a very crowded space,

  • convert paid subscribers in a very different online and digital media climate, and

  • produce writing and posts that people actually want to receive in their inboxes.

Yes, it’s a frame-work. With it, I guide you through what works and yes, it takes work.

It’s not linear. And it still doesn’t capture the magic of my 1:1s. But it’s close.

Anyone who tries to sell you on easy growth and a Substack “system” is selling empty promises.

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What you receive as a paid subscriber, which is what you really need on Substack now

The full framework in less time.

Included in the paid subscription and Premier Membership:

• Weekly strategic posts that tie directly to a framework focus. You’re learning one thing deeply, not chasing scattered tactics.

• Monthly deep-dive workshops where I take you through one part of the framework each month. If you can’t attend live, you’ll get a <15-minute highlight video with clear next steps.

Show up for posts once a week and the workshop or replay once a month.

Simple.

BONUSES:

• The Newbie Pathway

  • If you’re just getting started, this gets you oriented fast without flailing around.

• 10% off all intensives and courses

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What’s changing:

• Activity typically found in the chat is now in the comments of each post.

  • The chat will close tomorrow, 10/29, so be sure to take all questions to the comments below.

• A Notes Boost thread lives here for those interested. Bookmark it and return to support others.

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Other opportunities:

Get on the waitlist for the Premier Membership:

• The full framework, plus everything in the paid + direct, live guidance with me in a monthly call and office hours and (NEW!) exclusive opportunities for growth and revenue, including Notes Growth Sessions and the SW@W Sponsorships Program, a mini-audit of your Substack.

Courses and intensives

• Substack Growth Foundations Course (4 weeks): Next cohort begins 11/22. Get on the waitlist. The last cohort sold out.

• One-Day Substack DNA Intensive (3 hours + a one-week cohort) Last intensive sold out. Get on the waitlist.

• Craft of Writing on Substack (6 weeks) Sold out. Get on the waitlist.

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No matter what:

I’ll save you from wasting years flailing around trying to figure out what works on Substack.

That will never change.

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Now:

Not everyone wants connection, but some really, really do. Comments will now be our chat, where paid subscribers promote their Substacks, ask questions, get headline help, and connect.

• Tell us about your Substack.

• Find at least one other person who interests you and say hello.