Oh, the predictions.
In case you missed it, a lot of people are writing about what Substack will be like in 2026.
They talk about Substack’s recent declaration that they’re a social media app, albeit with (perhaps) a more discerning algorithm. (It strikes me as just a regular algorithm, but that’s just me.)
And the people leaving the platform.
And the celebrities and influencers crowding the platform.
And how hard it will be to grow now.
Much of what’s been written is suspiciously AI-like in length and tone or simply recycles the usual internet advice.
The main problem: These Substack Nostradamuses don’t understand that there have always been discontent, people leaving, and platform pivots that seem to shake us to our core.
Most of all, Substack growth has always been difficult and Substack has always been crowded.
What hasn’t changed
Here are two sentences from the 2021 Substack Writers at Work About page:
Substack is one of the two hardest platforms to succeed on. Like TikTok, it looks easy but isn’t.
(The next sentence: I’ll save you from wasting years, flailing around trying to figure out what works. I did. And I always will.)
Yes, we had the Substack bubble (January - June 2024), during which
and others exploded. People were getting thousands and tens of thousands of subscribers from a single Note. You could write hello on a Note and not even capitalize the h and get subscribers. The algorithm was like a teenager on Red Bull.And I warned it wouldn’t last. (See “A Substack Notes Reality Check: When 1 Note Brings in 20,000 Subscribers”).
And it didn’t.
That kind of growth is an anomaly.
Substack growth is difficult.
Yes, even for celebrities and influencers. Trust me. Some of them are my clients.
It’s a challenging, wacky platform. I mean, come on:
- sold 5 million books in one year but has only 30,000 subscribers on Substack.
I have clients with 10,000 subscribers who get 5 likes and 2 comments on a post and clients with 100 subscribers who get the same.
Challenging and wacky.
And rightfully so:
We’re publishing in three mediums at once (web, email, app), writing in two different genres (journalism/essay/blog and the newsletter), and dabbling in new media (audio and/or video).
True, celebrities and influencers are flooding the platform (
, , et al.), but proportionately, it’s no different than when there were only 17,000 of us on Substack and a bunch of big names arrived.Yes, Notes is a hamster wheel, but, luckily, it’s separate from your Substack. You never need to be on Notes if you don’t want to.
What if Substack is simply what it’s always been? An amazing opportunity (we seem to have forgotten how hard it was to make even a dollar from writing before Substack), an imperfect online space, and a difficult platform to grow and make money on.
So stop listening to people predict what will happen on Substack in 2026 or 2062 or whenever and focus on what you want to do with your Substack.
What you want in 2026
Last week, I asked what your biggest challenges are and what would help you most:
Your biggest challenges (by a long shot) are getting started (welcome!) and growing subscribers (I’m so glad you’re still here!).
And you want a proven framework to follow and weekly guidance.
I asked what’s most important to you, and your answers made me so happy.
You’re here to do something real and couldn’t care less about going viral on Notes.
You want to build your platform. And do your work.
This is what I do best.
For four years, I’ve helped tens of thousands of Substack writers grow; build real, often small (!) email lists with engaged, paying subscribers; offer Substack posts worth paying for; create unbelievable opportunities off Substack because of their Substacks (speaking gigs, book deals, agents, six-figure businesses, and more); and substantially increase their revenue.
But (!) you have to be willing to work and invest the time, energy, and/or money to do it.
The (Fay) Substack Growth Framework
You have to understand that I worked with 300 Substack writers my first year of consulting. Three years later, I’ve lost count though I think it’s close to 1000.
Some of my clients are big names; some have never published a word.
From them, I saw what worked across all Substacks and that any advice has to be personalized, which 99 percent of people can’t do for themselves.
I’ve used that to help tens of thousands here on Substack Writers at Work, showing you how to
grow in a very crowded space,
convert paid subscribers in a very different online and digital media climate, and
produce writing and posts that people actually want to receive in their inboxes.
Note: It’s a frame-work. I guide you through what works and yes, it takes work.
It’s not linear. And it still doesn’t capture the magic of my 1:1s. But it’s close.
Anyone who tries to sell you on easy growth and a Substack “system” is selling empty promises.
What that means for us
We’re streamlining according to what you want most.
Your options:
OPTION 1: Stay free and get occasional posts but not the full framework
OPTION 2: Upgrade to paid
The full framework to build a devoted audience in less time:
Weekly strategic posts that tie directly to a framework focus. You’re learning one thing deeply, not chasing scattered tactics.
Monthly deep-dive workshops where I take you through one part of the framework each month. If you can’t attend live, you’ll get a <15-minute highlight video with clear next steps.
The Newbie Pathway
If you’re just getting started, this gets you oriented fast without flailing around.
10% off all intensives and courses
Show up for posts once a week and the workshop or replay once a month.
The price is a no-brainer: $9/month, the price of two Starbucks lattes
Simple.
You can also get on the waitlist for the Premier Membership for the full framework, plus direct, live guidance with me in a monthly call and office hours and (NEW!) exclusive opportunities for growth and revenue, including Notes Growth Sessions and the SW@W Sponsorships Program.
Or if you’re tired of paid subscriptions, take a course to get what you need in one concentrated period with a cohort of your fellow Substack writers and creators:
Substack Growth Foundations Course (4 weeks): Next cohort begins 11/22. Get on the waitlist. The last cohort sold out.
One-Day Substack DNA Intensive (3 hours + a one-week cohort) Last intensive sold out. Get on the waitlist.
Craft of Writing on Substack (6 weeks) Sold out. Get on the waitlist.
No matter what:
I’ll save you from wasting years flailing around trying to figure out what works on Substack.
That will never change.
All my best,
Sarah
Comments are open now!
This is such great advice. I've noticed a real influx of 'Substack predictions' posts recently and I'm sure there will be many more before the end of the year. I love that Substack gives us space to expand - into whatever we want it to be. There is a freedom and an expansiveness here that I don't think I have seen or felt elsewhere.